Thoughts

Long-form thinking

On tech, AI, business, and what actually works.

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June 22, 2026

After the Fold: How AI Stopped Predicting Proteins and Started Inventing Them

The protein-structure revolution that won AlphaFold a Nobel Prize has quietly split into three races — prediction, design, and medicine. A field guide to the top contenders (AlphaFold 3, Boltz, Chai, RFdiffusion, ESM3, Isomorphic Labs) and the one tension none of them has resolved: the benchmarks have never looked better, and not a single AI-designed drug has yet been approved.

AIBiotechDrug DiscoveryScienceStrategy

June 20, 2026

The Week the Kill Switch Got Two Hands on It

In one week of June 2026, Anthropic quietly throttled its record-breaking Claude Fable 5 for AI researchers, then the U.S. Commerce Department forced Fable 5 and Mythos 5 offline worldwide via an export-control letter. The episode proved a frontier AI model is a strategic asset that can be pulled away overnight — by its maker or by the state.

AIAnthropicClaudePolicyStrategy

June 20, 2026

Addition by Subtraction: What Vercel's Deleted Robot Teaches Small Business

Vercel deleted roughly 80% of its internal AI agent's tools and it got faster, cheaper, and more accurate. The counterintuitive result explains why most business AI fails — and hands small and medium businesses a concrete playbook for landing in the 5% that actually works.

AISmall BusinessAutomationStrategyCase Studies

June 19, 2026

The Margin Machine: What the 2030 Small Business Will Look Like — and How to Build It First

Small businesses now adopt AI faster than big firms — yet roughly 95% of AI projects move no profit at all. Here's what the AI-native small business actually looks like by 2030, and the six-step roadmap that turns cheap intelligence into software-grade margins.

AISmall BusinessStrategyAutomation

June 19, 2026

The Fog and the Record: America's Two Wars With Iran

America fought two wars with Iran eleven months apart — the June 2025 Twelve-Day War and the February 2026 campaign that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. In both, the victory announced on day one and the reality that emerged weeks later were different conflicts. A reconstruction of what was claimed, and what actually held up.

PoliticsPolicyStrategy

June 16, 2026

The Check That Couldn't Be Written: In Defense of the Billionaire

A trillion-dollar pay package revived the internet's oldest fantasy — that one rich man could end world hunger with a single signature. It's wrong about wealth, wrong about hunger, and wrong about history: a defense of the much-maligned billionaire.

PoliticsEconomicsPolicyStrategy

May 28, 2026

The $3.70 Question: What You Should Actually Get Back for Every Dollar You Spend on AI

The honest answer to what you get per dollar of AI spend is two numbers, not one: $3.70 for the leaders, 5.9% for the average. Which one becomes yours has almost nothing to do with the model and everything to do with preparation.

AIROIEnterpriseStrategy
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